PS6 Could Crush Xbox Project Helix in Early Sales, New Analyst Forecast Claims

Speculations and predictions regarding next-gen consoles from Microsoft and Sony are already flying around, although both companies haven’t quite talked about their upcoming hardware. That being said, a fresh analyst report is suggest where the battle of PS6 and XBOX Project Helix could be headed, and it suggests PlayStation 6 may once again enjoy a sizable lead once it finally lands.

Analysts expect PS6 to open with a much stronger launch

According to a new forecast from S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan, reported first by GameIndustry.biz, Sony’s PlayStation 6 is expected to debut with stronger momentum than Microsoft’s rumored Xbox Project Helix (via Forbes). Based on the firm’s current outlook, the PS6 could launch in 2028 and sell roughly 4 million units during its first year before climbing to 17.2 million consoles by 2030.

Microsoft’s next Xbox, codenamed Project Helix, is projected to follow a much slower path. The report estimates around 2 million console sales during its launch year, eventually reaching 7.3 million units by 2030.

The research firm notes that Microsoft’s long-term strategy remains highly uncertain. If Project Helix ultimately becomes a more open PC-style gaming platform instead of a traditional console, today’s projections could change dramatically because the current model assumes something between a conventional Xbox successor and an Xbox-certified PC ecosystem.

Rising prices remain the biggest wildcard

Speaking of uncertainty, the report says ongoing component shortages continue to cloud the industry’s future. Analysts expect total console sales to decline by 19.5% in 2026, largely because higher manufacturing costs are pushing hardware prices upward.

The firm also forecasts Xbox Series X and Series S sales to fall to around 2.5 million units this year before rapidly declining, while PS5 shipments could reach approximately 13.2 million.

A major assumption behind the report is that supply chain pressures ease enough by 2028 for both Microsoft and Sony to launch new hardware in the $600 to $800 price range. Until both companies officially reveal their plans, these numbers remain forecasts rather than guarantees.